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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still